I called the hotel last night and left a message with the front desk manager asking if the box ever arrived. (I left written instructions to have them refuse delivery and have it returned.) The manager called me back this afternoon and told me that it did eventually arrive in Austin last Saturday, December 12 -- more than a week after the Tube arrived. As far as I can tell, the Post Office didn't put the Priority Mail stickers on the box, so it was treated as Parcel Post.
The Hilton Garden Inn Austin gave it back to the postal carrier for return to sender on Monday, December 14. With any luck, the box will finally make it back to my office in San Mateo by the time I get back. When I get back is still an open question, though.